Forest hectares lost according to Hansen and burned according to MODIS, multiplied by the carbon that was there before according to BioAurea and by IPCC factors. By vereda or at your coordinate or property in Colombia, 2015 to 2025.
How we calculate it
The product does not detect or predict anything: it quantifies. It separates three questions and uses for each the source that supports it. Where and how much area: Hansen Global Forest Change v1.13 (forest loss where 2000 canopy cover was 30% or more, the Global Forest Watch threshold) and MODIS MCD64A1 collection 061 (burned area at 500 m). How much carbon was there: for deforestation, the density of the forest that was actually cleared, measured with BioAurea's deployed model on a sample of randomly chosen cleared pixels, the year before clearing; for fire, necromass and soil, the vereda mean stock, with its 90% interval. How much is emitted: IPCC factors.
Deforestation: carbon = area × (above-ground biomass + roots − biomass of the later pasture). Pasture biomass after conversion: 16.1 t of dry matter per hectare, IPCC 2006, Vol. 4, Ch. 6, Table 6.4 (tropical moist zone), times the carbon fraction 0.47. Fire in forest without clearing: IPCC 2006 equation 2.27 with combustion factor 0.36 (IPCC 2019, Table 2.6, primary tropical forests) and the Table 2.5 emission factors for tropical forest: CO₂ 1580, CH₄ 6.8 and N₂O 0.20 grams per kilogram of dry matter. A pixel that burned and was cleared counts once, as deforestation.
Outside the headline: soil, as an emission committed over 20 years (zero if forest becomes pasture, IPCC 2019 Table 6.2; factor 0.83 from Table 5.5 if it became annual cropland), and necromass, which is uncertain. It does not include under-canopy degradation or litter. It is not accredited verification or official emissions accounting.
By coordinate or polygon: the same account in a 100, 250 or 500 m circle around a point, or within a polygon of 3 to 6 typed coordinates, each within 2 km of the first. Area is counted pixel by pixel at 30 m (Hansen); carbon per hectare is what the BioAurea model measures around the point, at about 500 m, on the cleared pixel the year before clearing; fire is read at 500 m (MODIS). For clearing in 2015 to 2020 the neighbouring standing forest is used only if a rule fixed before measuring supports it. Every result carries the verification link of the density it used.
How to check it: the validation rules were written and sealed with a sha256 fingerprint before measuring; the sealed text, the validation and the fingerprint of every document are at bioaurea.org/products/carbono-perdido-docs. The page publishes each criterion against Global Forest Watch, IDEAM and GFED with its result, the area table by municipality against Global Forest Watch, the sample of measured pixels with coordinate and date, and the download by vereda, municipality and department.